[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 090105
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090104
TNZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-090230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0161
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0704 PM CST Wed Feb 08 2017

Areas affected...northern AL/GA and middle/eastern TN

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 31...

Valid 090104Z - 090230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 31
continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms, some severe, will spread across
the remainder of ww31 this evening.  Locally damaging winds appear
to be the main threat.

DISCUSSION...Large-scale forcing for ascent appears to be
overspreading the TN valley and northern Gulf states as exit region
of digging mid-level jet quickly approaches.  Convection has
gradually increased within this zone just ahead of a
sharpening/surging cold front.  00z soundings BMX and BNA exhibit
modest mid-level lapse rates, but adequate buoyancy for robust
convection given the strong bulk shear observed.  Isolated
supercells remain possible within an elongated corridor of
near-frontal convection and the most likely severe threat is
damaging winds.  However, marginally severe hail could be noted with
longer-lived rotating updrafts.  Overall severe threat should spread
east-southeast across the remainder of ww31 by 05z.

..Darrow.. 02/09/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   33968836 36388705 36378308 33968452 33968836
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