[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

Fri Apr 28 16:59:59 CDT 2017

ACUS11 KWNS 282159
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282159
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-282330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0579
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0459 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Areas affected...Western KY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 282159Z - 282330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Convective trends will continue to be monitored for
potential watch issuance across the region.

DISCUSSION...Low-level moisture continues to advect into the region
with dewpoints in the upper 60s now in place across much of
northwestern TN and western KY. Despite this increase in moisture
and a related increase in instability, the area has remained free of
convection thus far and recent visible satellite imagery shows an
absence of deep cumulus development. This absence of warm-sector
development is likely a result of background large-scale height
rises and the lack of any forcing for ascent aside from warm-air
advection. In spite of these negative factors, convection-allow
guidance, including recent HRRR runs, continue to indicate the
potential for convective initiation within the warm, unstable, and
strongly sheared environment. Given the recent observational trends,
confidence is low in this scenario. Even so, given a warm-sector
environment that is very favorable for supercells, trends across the
region will be monitored closely for convective development. Current
area of most interest is across southwestern KY, where recent radar
imagery has shown an increase in echos over the past 15 minutes. If
deep convection can be maintained in this area in the next hour or
two, then a downstream severe threat would likely be realized.

..Mosier/Thompson.. 04/28/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36898936 37388857 38068692 37768498 36718530 36398889
            36898936
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