[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 052358
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052357 COR
KYZ000-TNZ000-VAZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-ALZ000-060045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0452
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 PM CDT Wed Apr 05 2017

Areas affected...Central and eastern Kentucky...central and eastern
Tennessee...eastern Alabama...and northwestern Georgia

Concerning...Tornado Watch 127...

Valid 052357Z - 060045Z

CORRECTED FOR TEXT

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 127 continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms capable of all severe modes
continue across the region at this time.

DISCUSSION...The severe weather threat continues across portions of
WW 127 just ahead of a surface trough/dryline that extends from
central Kentucky southward to near Selma, Alabama.  Storms just
ahead of this trough have developed into broken bands with
occasional mesocyclones and bow echoes across central Kentucky.  The
presence of backed low-level flow across this region and around 1000
J/kg MUCAPE has fostered updraft rotation in a few of the more
isolated cells.

Farther south, more cellular convection has developed amidst a
weakly capped, moderately unstable airmass.  A few mesocyclones have
developed with the stronger storms, although somewhat veered flow in
Alabama has fostered splitting supercells and have perhaps hindered
the tornado threat there somewhat.  Furthermore, low-level backed
flow in portions of far eastern Alabama and northern Georgia has
occurred amidst cooler surface temperatures as the region remains
influenced by an ongoing MCS farther east across South Carolina.
Thus far, storms have not been able organize stronger low-level
mesocyclogenesis as a result of the more backed low-level flow,
likely owing to cellular convection becoming quickly elevated once
the move into the rain-cooled airmass over Georgia/far eastern
Alabama.  The tornado potential still remains with this activity,
especially as cells cross into this rain-cooled airmass.  Damaging
wind gusts and especially large hail remain likely with this
activity.

With time, storms across KY/TN portions will reach the eastern
extent of WW 127 within the next 1-2 hours.  The eastern extent of
the severe threat is uncertain with this activity owing to a more
stable downstream airmass.

..Cook/Guyer.. 04/05/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...ILN...LMK...OHX...
BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   38228525 38548491 38698435 38708392 38468343 38078301
            37448293 36928295 36378305 35768333 35058350 34518347
            33798361 33168373 32708408 32328473 32058567 32188678
            32518712 32888704 33558694 34648663 35248642 36318608
            37488557 38228525
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