[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 202043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202042
WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-202245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1803
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 PM CDT THU OCT 20 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KY...FAR SOUTHEASTERN
OHIO...WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA...PORTIONS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 202042Z - 202245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT A WEATHER
WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD IN
THE VICINITY OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND
ALONG THE COMPOSITE OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY FARTHER
EAST. ALTHOUGH STORMS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED SUB-SEVERE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THE MAIN FRONTAL FORCING AND THE STRONGER FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL SOON SPREAD
OVER THE AREA. SOME INSTABILITY REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER
STORMS AND HAS BEEN AUGMENTED SOMEWHAT BY CIRRUS THAT THINNED IN THE
PAST FEW HOURS.

THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILE...WHILE SHOWING BACKING ALOFT
INDICATIVE OF THE LARGE-SCALE COLD ADVECTION OVERSPREADING THE
AREA...STILL HAS ENOUGH BULK MAGNITUDE TO SUPPORT SEMI-ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES. HOWEVER...THE ONGOING MULTICELL CLUSTERS FROM
CENTRAL KY INTO MIDDLE TN ONLY HAVE A FEW MORE HOURS TO ENCOUNTER
SUBSTANTIVE INSTABILITY BEFORE REACHING A SHARP EASTERN EDGE TO THE
HIGHER PW/INSTABILITY. THIS SHOULD QUICKLY CURTAIL THE SEVERE
THREAT. THIS IS ALSO THE CASE FOR THE CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS
APPROACHING THE CHARLESTON AREA. IN THE MEANTIME...ANY OF THESE
STORMS COULD STILL OBTAIN ENOUGH ORGANIZATION/ROTATION TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS/HAIL...BUT A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..CONIGLIO/COHEN/DARROW.. 10/20/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN...

LAT...LON   38158460 38768318 39198155 39038081 38528050 38088076
            37808111 37528150 37318178 37158199 36918228 36498262
            35968325 35708373 35268443 35078517 35068558 35328600
            35908615 36768576 37688524 38158460
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