[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 292108
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292108
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-292315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1840
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN MS...PARTS OF SOUTHERN TN AND INTO
NORTHWEST AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 292108Z - 292315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME WILL LIKELY POSE
SEVERE/TORNADO RISK NORTH OF EXISTING TORNADO WATCH 504.  A NEW
WATCH IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL STRONG/LOCALLY
SEVERE STORMS ONGOING IN AND NEAR WW 504 ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA.  AS NORTHWARD LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND -- EVENTUALLY --
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM...
SEVERE/TORNADO RISK WILL LIKELY EXPAND NORTHWARD AS WELL.  RISK WILL
LIKELY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT WITH TIME...AS A
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES THIS EVENING...ENHANCING
AVAILABLE SHEAR AND FURTHERING THE NORTHWARD RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE.  WHILE STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONTAINED WITHIN WW 504
IN THE SHORT TERM...EVENTUAL EXPANSION NORTHEASTWARD WILL LIKELY
REQUIRE NEW TORNADO WATCH CONSIDERATION INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

..GOSS/THOMPSON.. 11/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   33759106 34848995 35518854 35458723 33708798 33538907
            33759106
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