[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 261845
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261845
TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-262045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0742
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN MO...WRN KY AND TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 261845Z - 262045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT A WATCH IS NEEDED...BUT TRENDS ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WHICH COULD REQUIRE A WATCH THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION HAS TAKEN
PLACE ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE CONGLOMERATE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO/MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.  PERHAPS AIDED BY AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION...CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE GROWING
UPSCALE IN A CLUSTER NOW SOUTHEAST OF CAPE GIRARDEAU.

LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW/SHEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION
IS RATHER MODEST TO WEAK.  BUT INTERACTION BETWEEN THE GROWING
CLUSTER OF STORMS AND A SLOW MOVING OR STALLED SEGMENT OF THE
OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE INCREASING.  AS THIS...AND INFLOW OF AIR
CHARACTERIZED BY MIXED LAYER OF 1500-3000 J/KG...CONTINUES...THE
EVOLUTION OF AN ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEARS
POSSIBLE.  IF THIS OCCURS...IT PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AT
LEAST SOME RISK FOR POTENTIAL DAMAGING...PERHAPS SEVERE...WIND
GUSTS.

..KERR/HART.. 05/26/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   37088831 37238737 36518697 35838779 35798888 35948956
            36389007 36748967 36738884 37088831
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