[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

Thu May 12 09:13:29 CDT 2016

ACUS11 KWNS 121411
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121410
ALZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-121545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0620
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0910 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NE AR...WRN TN...NRN MS...NW AL...FAR SW KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 121410Z - 121545Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO WESTERN
TN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE SHOULD STORM INTENSITY INCREASE.

DISCUSSION...AN MCV ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT MCS WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING EASTWARD TOWARD THE MS RIVER/WRN TN INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER INHIBITION IS STILL EVIDENT PER
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WERE
EVIDENT SOUTH OF A W-E SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM FAR NE AR INTO NW
TN...AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST DESTABILIZATION WITH CONTINUED
HEATING AHEAD OF CONVECTION. INCREASED EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 40 KT
DUE IN PART TO THE MCV WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED STORM ORGANIZATION
AND STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE. GROUND TRUTH HAS BEEN LIMITED THIS
MORNING...WHICH SUPPORTS INHIBITION PREVENTING STRONGER GUSTS FROM
CURRENTLY REACHING THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE SHOULD INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY
OCCUR.

..LEITMAN/HART.. 05/12/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   35549081 36099087 36448993 36718847 36738819 36598780
            36098737 35608711 35118701 34938706 34798721 34608775
            34408921 34418966 34569044 34829067 35159080 35549081

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