[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 120428
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120428
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-120600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0615
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO...WRN AND SRN IL...WRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 171...

VALID 120428Z - 120600Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 171
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE MO...SRN IL INTO
FAR WRN KY FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. THE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
BEYOND THE WATCH EXPIRATION AND A LOCAL EXTENSION MAY BE NEEDED.
ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW A BOWING LINE SEGMENT OVER FAR
SRN IL THAT HAS BEEN SUSTAINED IN INTENSITY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.
THIS BOWING LINE IS LOCATED ALONG A TIGHT GRADIENT OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY NEAR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM PREVIOUS
CONVECTION. AS THE LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE ESEWD...A MAX IN LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WHICH IS ANALYZED BY THE RAP NEAR THE IL-KY STATELINE...WILL
HELP TO SUSTAIN STRONG UPDRAFTS WITHIN THE BOWING LINE SEGMENT.
MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT ON REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS ALONG
WITH AN ESEWD MOVEMENT AT 35 KT WILL MAKE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS A
POSSIBILITY WITH THE STRONGER PARTS OF THE LINE. THIS THREAT SHOULD
PERSIST AND A LOCAL EXTENSION MAY BE NEEDED FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS.

..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 05/12/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...LSX...

LAT...LON   38328871 37798997 37639079 37229090 36838957 36588755
            36568667 37038594 37578595 37948685 38328871
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