[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

Sun May 1 13:13:28 CDT 2016

ACUS11 KWNS 011812
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011811
KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-011915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0521
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SW KY...WRN TN...NRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 011811Z - 011915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WRN OH/TN VALLEYS. SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE SHOWN INCREASINGLY
AGITATED CU ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING EWD INTO FAR SW KY...WRN
TN...AND NW MS. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE
WITH RECENT MESOANALYSIS SUGGEST LITTLE...IF ANY...CINH REMAINS
AMIDST MLCAPE NEAR 15OO J PER KG. LOW-LEVEL FLOW THROUGHOUT THE
REGION IS WEAK BUT 12Z BNA SOUNDING SAMPLED 500-MB FLOW AROUND 50 KT
WITH SOME INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL FLOW POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY. MESOANALYSIS CURRENTLY
ESTIMATES EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 50-55 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT APPEARS
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE MONITORED
FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 05/01/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   34948818 34398906 34289030 34609044 35368957 36338879
            36868818 37258761 37228666 36798655 36338686 34948818
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