[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 272215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272215
OHZ000-MIZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-280015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0279
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0515 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KY...SRN/ERN IND...WRN OH...SE MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 56...

VALID 272215Z - 280015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 56
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS PROBABLY WILL INCREASE FURTHER
ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN INDIANA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN AREAS NORTH/SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATCH WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL WHICH COULD REQUIRE A WATCH.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOW WELL
UNDERWAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.  LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STILL APPEARS A BIT MARGINAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS...BUT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SUFFICIENTLY STEEP TO ALLOW
FOR WEAK TO MODEST MIXED LAYER CAPE.  TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS
IN THE WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER OUTSIDE/AHEAD OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ARE ON THE ORDER OF 20+ DEG F...WHICH COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE TO STRONG SURFACE GUSTS...PARTICULARLY IF/WHEN
CONVECTION BEGINS TO CONSOLIDATE.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 40-50 KT
SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW IS ALREADY MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.  HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK.

GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET /30-40 KT/ BY THIS EVENING...AND PARTICULARLY
TOWARD THE 02-04Z TIME FRAME...AS THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
TAKES ON A BIT MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT.  HOWEVER...BY THAT
TIME...STRONG SURFACE GUST POTENTIAL COULD BECOME OFFSET BY
RADIATIONAL SURFACE COOLING AND STABILIZING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL COULD MAXIMIZE
ACROSS INDIANA...WEST THROUGH NORTH OF LOUISVILLE KY THROUGH AREAS
SOUTH/EAST OF INDIANAPOLIS DURING THE 00-02Z TIME FRAME...WITH
DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREAT.  UNTIL THEN...MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG SURFACE GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
STRONGEST STORMS...INCLUDING AREAS WITHIN THE WATCH...AS WELL AS TO
THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE WATCH.

..KERR.. 03/27/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...OHX...IND...PAH...
ILX...

LAT...LON   40718272 40408335 39738391 38858456 38208526 37428591
            36628687 36988822 38788783 39988679 40898562 41918417
            42128332 41578218 40718272
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