[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 232257
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232257
WVZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-240030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1035
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0557 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHERN OH/EASTERN KY/WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
WV/FAR SOUTHWEST VA/PART OF EASTERN TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 289...

VALID 232257Z - 240030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 289 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
QUARTER OF WW 289 WITH STORMS DEVELOPING AND/OR EMBEDDED NEAR AND
WITHIN THE LEADING BAND OF STORM ACTIVITY ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL WIND
SHIFT.  A THREAT FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS AND A LOWER
PROBABILITY FOR A TORNADO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF WW
289 AS STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT.  THIS SIMILAR THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOUTH OF 289...WITH A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH TO BE COORDINATED SOON TO INCLUDE PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KY...FAR
SOUTHWEST VA...AND EASTERN TN...AND PERHAPS PART OF FAR WESTERN NC.

DISCUSSION...EARLY EVENING MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TWO BANDS OF
STORMS WITH THE LEADING BAND EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM SOUTHERN
WV...AND BISECTING KY FROM EAST TO WEST....WHILE THE SECOND AREA OF
STORMS WERE ATTENDANT TO ASCENT WITH THE SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT
/CURRENTLY IN FAR SOUTHERN OH TO SOUTHERN INDIANA/.

GIVEN MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM WW 289 INTO
TN/NC...STORM MERGERS AND COLD POOL ENHANCEMENT WITH THE LEADING
BAND OF STORMS SUGGEST THE THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL
EXPAND SOUTH OF THIS WATCH.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WITH SOUTHWARD
EXTENT WILL REMAIN WEAK...FAVORING COLD-POOL ENHANCED DAMAGING WINDS
AS THE PRIMARY THREAT...WITH A DECREASING POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
TORNADOES INTO THE NEW WATCH ISSUANCE.

..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 06/23/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   39058505 39248325 39338205 38798078 38268074 37668100
            36958176 36228182 36078215 36048303 36068386 36178469
            36428508 37108487 37738458 39058505

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