[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 142138
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142137
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-142330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0919
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0437 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN INDIANA...CNTRL KY...NERN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 142137Z - 142330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF STRONG TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...AND AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST
OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF STRONG TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED INVOF THE EDGE
OF A PLUME OF RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE SPREADING EWD ACROSS
PARTS OF THE OH AND TN VALLEY REGION. LOCALIZED INSTANCES OF UPSCALE
GROWTH OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAVE RESULTED IN STRONGER COLD POOLS
EVOLVING E OF LOUISVILLE INTO PARTS OF CNTRL KY. A NARROW CORRIDOR
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY E OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN STRONG TSTM POTENTIAL DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH AN
ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST OR TWO POSSIBLE -- AIDED BY WATER LOADING
GIVEN PW AROUND 1.75 INCHES. FOLLOWING PREFERENTIAL CELL
DEVELOPMENT/PROPAGATION EWD IN THE UNSTABLE AIR...THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN IN A FEW HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE EDGE OF NOTABLY
LOWER THETA-E...FROM SW OF THE COVINGTON KY AREA TO LONDON KY. WEAK
DEEP SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR RISK FROM EVOLVING.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 06/14/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   36688538 37758543 38688563 38888538 38738493 37968454
            36608433 36348483 36688538

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