[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 041645
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041644
WVZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-041845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0812
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 AM CDT SAT JUN 04 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN THROUGH ERN KY...SRN AND CNTRL WV AND WRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 041644Z - 041845Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO UNDERGO AN INCREASE IN
INTENSITY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE TN VALLEY AND SRN
APPALACHIAN REGION. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG TO
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

DISCUSSION...DIABATIC WARMING EAST OF A EXPANSIVE CLOUD SHIELD IS
SUPPORTING DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM MIDDLE AND ERN TN
THROUGH ERN KY...WV AND WRN VA WITH 1500 J/KG MLCAPE INDICATED ON
LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK...BUT
STRONG SFC HEATING IS SUPPORTING DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WITHIN A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. DEVELOPING STORMS ARE
EMBEDDED WITHIN MODEST /25-35 KT/ 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH 30-40 KT WINDS
BETWEEN 700-500 MB. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS
MODES CAPABLE OF WET DOWNBURSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..DIAL/WEISS.. 06/04/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...

LAT...LON   38837975 37808040 36538200 35398424 35388631 37368538
            39178111 38837975

SThis weather bulletin was brought to you by:
http://www.nashvilleweather.net

Follow us on Facebook at:
http://www.facebook.com/nashvilleweather