[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 081859
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081859
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-082100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1207
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MO...NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST AR...FAR SOUTHERN IL...FAR WESTERN KY...WESTERN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 081859Z - 082100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY
EVENING. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS RESIDES OVER THE OZARK
PLATEAU INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY REGION. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS SUGGEST
AN UNCAPPED AIRMASS WITH WIDESPREAD SBCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 3000
J/KG. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM CENTRAL IL TO JUST NORTH
OF THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA INTO WEST-CENTRAL MO. A WEAK MCV AND
ASSOCIATED CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED NEAR BRANSON IN SW
MO AND TRACKING TOWARD THE E/NE. AHEAD OF THE MCV...WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO DEVELOPING. DEEP LAYER FLOW IS RELATIVELY
WEAK...GENERALLY 30 KT OR LESS.  THIS WILL IMPACT OVERALL STORM
ORGANIZATION...BUT STRONG INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT BRIEF...INTENSE
UPDRAFTS. STEEP MID AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO AID IN HAIL
PRODUCTION AS WELL AS STRONG DOWNBURSTS. THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT
COULD INCREASE/BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SHOULD THUNDERSTORM
INTERACTIONS LEAD TO A COLD POOL AND SUBSEQUENT FORWARD PROPAGATING
MCS. THIS SCENARIO REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE THIS AFTERNOON.

..LEITMAN/DARROW.. 07/08/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   35458822 35208902 35208997 35429139 35609232 35909294
            36419324 36899319 37329256 37689158 37839085 37778992
            37608915 37258841 36718807 36178794 35808807 35458822

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