[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 031846
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031845
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-032045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1121
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER OH VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 031845Z - 032045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO SHOULD INCREASE
BY LATE AFTERNOON AS MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF STORMS DEVELOP ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT.

DISCUSSION...A SHORT-LINE SEGMENT HAS PERSISTED DOWNSTREAM OF AN MCV
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST MO...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS INITIATING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-SOUTH ALONG A WEAK CONFLUENCE AXIS. IN SPITE
OF POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THAT ARCS OVER
FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. WITH A BELT OF
ENHANCED LOW/MID-LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLIES ATTENDANT TO THE MCV /AS
SAMPLED BY RECENT PAH VWP DATA/...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. A MESSY CLUSTER-TYPE MODE SHOULD DOMINATE WITHIN
THIS SETUP...WITH EMBEDDED SMALL-SCALE BOWING SEGMENTS AND TRANSIENT
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...BUT A TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT IN THE IL/KY/IND BORDER REGION.

..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 07/03/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...

LAT...LON   38688836 38828694 38618616 37898600 37398620 36588752
            35898865 35888912 36218942 37388901 38088871 38688836
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