[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 091822
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091821
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-092045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0013
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CST SAT JAN 09 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN MS...PORTIONS OF SWRN TN/NWRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 091821Z - 092045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE LIMITED
MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT...WATCH ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...AT 1815Z...WV IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG VORT MAX MOVING
ACROSS AR...WHILE RADAR AND VIS IMAGERY SHOW ONE BROKEN LINE OF
STORMS ACROSS CNTRL MS...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP FURTHER SW NEAR THE LA/MS BORDER ALONG THE COLD FRONT. WHILE
CLOUDS ARE RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...A FEW BREAKS
HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR 60F AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS WRN MS...WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE LOWER 50S. IN
CONJUNCTION WITH COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPS OVERSPREADING THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE VORT MAX...THIS MODEST HEATING HAS ALLOWED SBCAPE TO RISE TO
250-500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PER RECENT MESOANALYSIS.

STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX IS RESULTING IN
SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. THE STRONGEST CELLS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME HAIL...THOUGH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL
WILL BE TEMPERED BY LIMITED BUOYANCY. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...THOUGH RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND THREAT. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LIMITED
NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT...WW ISSUANCE IS CURRENTLY NOT
ANTICIPATED.

..DEAN/WEISS.. 01/09/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   33149100 33919052 34589015 34978989 35318925 35458876
            35508806 35268759 34668749 34178754 33368796 32868824
            32558846 32158871 32018928 32009000 32049055 32339090
            33149100
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