[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

Tue Feb 2 20:51:31 CST 2016

ACUS11 KWNS 030251
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030250
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-030345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0083
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0850 PM CST TUE FEB 02 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TENNESSEE SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL
ALABAMA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 11...

VALID 030250Z - 030345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 11 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE/TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW
11...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA.

DISCUSSION...CONTINUE WW 11.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
OCCASIONAL STRONG LOW-LEVEL ROTATION CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
PARTS OF THE WATCH AREA FROM EASTERN MISSISSIPPI.  OTHER
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF WW 11 /ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
ALABAMA/ ALSO CONTINUE TO PERSIST WITHIN CONFLUENT/UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR FLOW... AND MAY ALSO POSE AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT GIVEN
FAVORABLE STORM MODE AND STRONG LOW- AND DEEP-SHEAR.  PORTIONS OF
WESTERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA MAY NEED A NEW WW AS THE TORNADO THREAT IN
THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY PERSIST BEYOND THE 04Z EXPIRATION TIME.

FARTHER NORTH INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WEAKER SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY
IS LIMITING THE SEVERE THREAT.  HOWEVER...PERSISTENT CONVECTION
CONTAINING LEWP-TYPE STRUCTURES SUGGEST AN ISOLATED WIND GUST OR
BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED AS STORMS ENTER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF WW 11.  THE EXPECTED PERSISTENCE OF THIS CONVECTION
REMAINS IN QUESTION DUE TO MORE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED...AND IS IT LIKELY THAT MUCH OF WW 11 MAY
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS CURRENTLY SCHEDULED.

..COOK/THOMPSON.. 02/03/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   32538845 33348857 34618815 36018750 36558702 36648639
            36578576 36468536 35948517 34788570 33278645 32578686
            32268728 32188769 32348823 32538845
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