[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 022041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022040
TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-022215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0077
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 PM CST TUE FEB 02 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL KY...MIDDLE TN...AND NRN/CNTRL
AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 022040Z - 022215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES...A COUPLE OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG...IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. TORNADO
WATCH ISSUANCE IS LIKELY BY 22Z.

DISCUSSION...ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN TN
AND NRN/CNTRL MS THAT HAVE FORMED AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NEWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LOW- AND MID-LEVEL
SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELL
POTENTIAL...WITH AREA VWPS INDICATING 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 200
M2/S2 ACROSS THE MCD AREA...AND IN SOME CASES APPROACHING 400 M2/S2.
THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR REMAINS THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE...WITH
20Z RAP MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATING MUCAPE GENERALLY BETWEEN 100-500
J/KG...DECREASING FROM S TO N. HOWEVER...CONTINUED NWD TRANSPORT OF
MOISTURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG /50-60 KT/ LOW-LEVEL JET ALONG
WITH STEEPING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ERODE THE LINGERING
CAPPING EVIDENT AROUND 600 MB IN THE 18Z KBMX SOUNDING. GIVEN
TENDENCY FOR CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE LINEAR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A THREAT...WITH ISOLATED
TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. A
STRONG TORNADO OR TWO MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN AL INTO MIDDLE
TN WHERE THE MOST FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF STRONG SHEAR WITH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY EXISTS.

..GLEASON/GOSS.. 02/02/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   32368830 34928799 36628699 37878655 37858548 36818521
            34988563 33438608 32018659 32318745 32368830
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