[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 180229
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180228
TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-180330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1894
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0828 PM CST Sat Dec 17 2016

Areas affected...Southeast AR...northern MS...western/middle
TN...northwest AL...southern KY

Concerning...Tornado Watch 517...

Valid 180228Z - 180330Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 517 continues.

SUMMARY...Some risk for damaging wind and a tornado or two will
persist for at least the next few hours. A replacement watch will
likely be needed by 03Z.

DISCUSSION...At 0215Z, a nearly solid line of convection is ongoing
from southern AR northeast into southern KY. Much of the convection
has been undercut by a southeastward moving cold front, but cells
along or just ahead of the line have produced some wind damage and a
couple of reported tornadoes earlier this evening across portions of
Arkansas and Tennessee, and wind gusts in excess of 40 knots were
recently noted near Memphis and in northern TN near Clarksville. A
largely anafrontal regime is expected to continue, given the
progressive nature of the front and limited large-scale ascent
across the warm sector. However, some threat of small bowing
segments capable of producing wind damage and brief tornadoes will
continue, given the very favorable wind profiles in place. A
conditional risk of tornadoes remains associated with any discrete
cells that can develop ahead of the front, though there is currently
no indication of substantial initiation potential ahead of the
primary band of convection.

Since the severe threat is expected to continue beyond 03Z and
eventually move into portions of northern MS/AL and middle TN not
currently in the watch, a replacement watch will likely be required
within the hour.

..Dean/Edwards.. 12/18/2016

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   33599263 33819244 35358948 36358761 36908646 37068603
            36528504 35288625 34458718 34028779 33608893 33629053
            33599263

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