[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 061941
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061940
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-062145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0338
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 PM CDT WED APR 06 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN IL...FAR SOUTHWESTERN IN...WESTERN
KY...WESTERN TN...NORTHERN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 061940Z - 062145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND SMALL
HAIL WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT A WEATHER WATCH IS LIKELY NOT NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG AN ELONGATING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD-FRONT IS CONTRIBUTING TO
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DESPITE RATHER MEAGER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LIMITED INSOLATION THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY EXPANDING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD-FRONT...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND SEPARATE CONFLUENCE LINE
DEPICTED IN THE MCD GRAPHIC ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE NARROW
REGION BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND THE CONFLUENCE LINE AS A REGION OF
RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR IS PERSISTING OVER FAR NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA AND WEST-CENTRAL TENNESSEE.
REGARDING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE MCD AREA WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS REMAIN THE 40S...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...STRONG 850-700 MB FLOW OF 50-70 KT
COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SEVERE GUSTS IN ANY OF THE STRONGER
DOWNDRAFTS...AS SUGGESTED BY RECENT CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SMALL PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR A WEATHER WATCH.

..CONIGLIO/HART.. 04/06/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   37068970 37828942 38208901 38518840 38438759 37468731
            35988812 35288835 34538849 34148872 33738923 33739023
            34259086 34899083 36169003 37068970
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