[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 060904
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060903
KYZ000-TNZ000-061100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1934
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 AM CST FRI NOV 06 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN/EAST-CENTRAL KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 060903Z - 061100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STRONG/POSSIBLY NEAR-SEVERE
WIND GUSTS OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TN AND EAST-CENTRAL
KY...WITH LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE A POSSIBILITY.

DISCUSSION...A NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST-ORIENTED CONVECTIVE
LINE...EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM BOWLING GREEN KY TO NEAR CLARKSVILLE
TN AND EAST OF JACKSON TN AS OF 245 AM CST/0845Z...HAS SHOWN SIGNS
OF MODEST INTENSIFICATION VIA AN OBSERVABLE INCREASE IN LIGHTNING
AND TIGHTENING REFLECTIVITY GRADIENT/EMBEDDED SMALL-SCALE BOWING
SEGMENTS. A 37 KT WIND GUST WAS RECENTLY MEASURED IN CLARKSVILLE TN
AS OF 230 AM CST/0830Z. ON THE LARGER SCALE...THE INCREASING
ORGANIZATION/INTENSIFICATION OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE ARE LIKELY BEING
AIDED BY A NORTHEASTWARD-EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST
AND ITS RELATED MASS RESPONSE/STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR.
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE...A RELATIVELY NARROW
CORRIDOR OF MIDDLE 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS CONTINUES TO STREAM
NORTHWARD ACROSS MIDDLE TN/CENTRAL KY WITH AID OF A 50 KT
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AS PER REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA.
THIS AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH RELATIVELY
MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES /68-74 F/ IS SUPPORTIVE OF NEAR-SURFACE
ROOTED PARCELS WITH ONLY MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER INHIBITION. AS
SUCH...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DEEP-LAYER/LOW-LEVEL WIND
PROFILE...SOME STRONGER AND POTENTIALLY NEAR-SEVERE WIND GUSTS COULD
OCCUR OVERNIGHT...WITH VERY LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE A POSSIBILITY.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 11/06/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   35758838 36608763 37498661 38218506 37988384 36688482
            35518667 35758838
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