[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 260636
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260635
KYZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-260700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0148
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0135 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NE AR...MO BOOTHEEL...WRN KY...NW TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 7...

VALID 260635Z - 260700Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 7 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...OVERALL SEVERE RISK APPEARS MARGINAL BUT NON-ZERO WITH
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD. A NEW WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED BEYOND 07Z SCHEDULED EXPIRATION....BUT LOCAL WFO
EXTENSION IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED COMPOSITE CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW/COLD FRONT FROM NEAR KDYR TO KLIT. THREE SMALL CLUSTERS OF
MORE INTENSE CONVECTION OVER SWRN KY...THE MO BOOTHEEL AND NE AR
HAVE SHOWN SOME ORGANIZATIONAL CHARACTER. THE LEAD CLUSTER OVER SW
KY APPEARS TO HAVE THE GREATEST NEAR-TERM SEVERE RISK GIVEN LOCATION
ALONG THE FRONT AND 0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KT IN HPX VWP DATA.
FARTHER WEST...50-KT MID-LEVEL SWLYS SAMPLED IN PAH VWP
DATA...SEMI-PERPENDICULAR TO THE N/S-ORIENTED ALIGNMENT OF THE
CLUSTERS...COULD YET SUPPORT LOCALLY STRONG DOWNDRAFTS PERHAPS
PRODUCING A SPOT OR TWO OF WIND DAMAGE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. BUT
GIVEN CONTINUED OVERTURNING/DEARTH OF INSTABILITY /WITH MINIMAL
MUCAPE PER RAP-BASED OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/...EVEN THIS RISK SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING.

..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 03/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36139112 36888993 37028837 37108797 37198742 37068724
            36848718 36558720 35958804 35948851 35848974 35699064
            36139112


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