[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 301656
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301655
VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-301930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1242
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN KY...SRN/ERN WV...WRN VA...WRN
NC...WRN SC...WRN TN....FAR NERN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 301655Z - 301930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND
INTENSIFYING ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...POSING A
RISK FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DMGG WIND GUSTS. THE AREA IS
BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION ARE UNDERWAY ALONG
AN AXIS OF WEAKLY CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM CNTRL KY TO MIDDLE
TN...WITH ADDITIONAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT/CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EWD
TO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. WIDESPREAD INSOLATION/DIABATIC SFC
HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DESTABILIZATION WITH DEWPOINTS THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 60S AND MLCAPE INCREASING TO AROUND 750-1500 J/KG. WITH
WEAK CAPPING IN PLACE AND ASCENT OFFERED BY TERRAIN-DRIVEN
CIRCULATIONS/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
ZONES...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE EVOLVING INTO EWD-MOVING MULTICELL
CLUSTERS GIVEN 25-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SUCH RISK WOULD BE
LOCALLY ENHANCED WHERE LOCAL COLD-POOL AMALGAMATION TAKES PLACE.

..COHEN/HART.. 06/30/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LWX...RAH...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...
FFC...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   37468458 37978321 38378171 39177870 38957789 37497872
            35328038 34548207 34868446 35738554 36578558 37468458
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