[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 141724
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141724 COR
SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-141845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1412
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE/ERN TN...FAR S-CNTRL KY...FAR NE AL...NRN
GA...FAR WRN NC...FAR NWRN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 141724Z - 141845Z

CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCES IN THE DISCUSSION

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...NUMEROUS STRONG TO SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO COVER THIS ANTICIPATED SVR THREAT.

DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS TWO AREAS OF TSTM
ACTIVITY...ONE NEAR THE S-CNTRL KY/N-CNTRL TN BORDER...AND THE OTHER
FARTHER SE ACROSS FAR NE GA/NW SC. THE AREA ALONG THE S-CNTRL
KY/N-CNTRL TN BORDER IS LIKELY A RESULT OF WAA ALONG THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY PRODUCED BY THE DECAYING MCS WITH THE ACTIVITY FARTHER SE
REPRESENTING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE
S-CNTRL KY/N-CNTRL TN HAS BEEN STABILIZED BY MCS WITH THIS ACTIVITY
NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR TOO MUCH LONGER. IN CONTRAST...THE
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY FARTHER S IS AT LEAST MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME SVR THREAT...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUED TO DESTABILIZE.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY PLACE THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM THE MCS FROM JUST E OF FTK /IN N-CNTRL KY/ SWD THROUGH
MIDDLE TN AND THEN SEWD IN FAR NE GA. CU HAS INCREASED AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY BUT THE 12Z BNA SOUNDING MODIFIED WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS
SUGGESTS AT LEAST 50 J PER KG OF MLCINH STILL REMAINS. DIURNAL
HEATING AND WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING
FARTHER N SHOULD ERODE THIS INHIBITION WITH IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
THIS AREA /MIDDLE TN/ IS LOCATED WITHIN THE FAVORABLE JUXTAPOSITION
OF GOOD MOISTURE -- PW VALUE OF 1.94 ON 12Z BNA SOUNDING -- AND
STEEP MID-LEVEL LEVEL LAPSE RATES -- 7.6 DEG C PER KM FROM 700 TO
500 MB AT 12Z. THE RESULTING VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT STRONG TO SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT ONCE CONVECTIVE INITIATION
OCCURS. CLUSTERED STORM MODE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A MAINLY HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT BUT A TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. A WW
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER PORTIONS OF THE TO COVER THE ANTICIPATED
SVR THREAT.

..MOSIER/HART.. 07/14/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...
PAH...

LAT...LON   36938582 36738444 36488384 36178332 36038312 35668284
            34778262 34148255 33918274 33838332 34178506 34888680
            35748771 36748744 36938582
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