[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 131602
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131601
KYZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-131730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1390
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1101 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEAST IL...SOUTHERN IND...SOUTHWEST
OH...MUCH OF KY...AND NORTH CENTRAL TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 131601Z - 131730Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL SPREAD SOUTH OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 409 BY 18Z. A NEW DOWNSTREAM WATCH ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHERN IND...SOUTHWEST OH...KY AND NORTH-CENTRAL TN WILL
BE NEEDED BY 17Z

DISCUSSION...SOME INTENSIFICATION OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE OVER IND
HAS OCCURRED OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. IN FACT A GUST TO 65 MPH WAS
MEASURED IN HAMILTON COUNTY IND IN THE LAST 30 MINUTES. THE
DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AS STRONG HEATING OF
A VERY MOIST /75+ DEGREE DEWPOINTS/ AIRMASS CONTINUES. THIS WILL
LEAD TO STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT WILL INCREASE AS THE UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK E/SE...PROVIDING CONTINUED LARGE-SCALE
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. FURTHERMORE...REGIONAL VWP/S
HAVE SHOWN EVIDENCE OF CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WINDS /RIJ
STRUCTURE/ AT TIMES IN THE 1-3 KM RANGE. GIVEN THIS THERMODYNAMIC
AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
GIVEN VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN
MARGINAL. HOWEVER...A FEW SPIN-UPS IN MESOVORTICIES CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT.

..LEITMAN/HART.. 07/13/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...
ILX...

LAT...LON   38688336 39398376 39728418 39838461 39718496 39118567
            38748648 38728708 38698804 38538828 38188828 37338815
            36488773 36208733 36028657 36098543 36288461 36868368
            37758323 38688336
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