[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 021659
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021659
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-021900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1278
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 AM CDT THU JUL 02 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 021659Z - 021900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...DEVELOPING SCATTERED TSTMS MAY EVOLVE INTO A FEW MULTICELL
CLUSTERS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST ON IF/WHERE A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD DEVELOP.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE BLOSSOMED
AROUND THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MS/OH RIVERS. DOWNSTREAM DIABATIC
HEATING IS LIKELY TO BE MOST PRONOUNCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL
KY INTO FAR NRN MIDDLE TN AND THIS DESTABILIZATION SHOULD SUPPORT
TSTM INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LVX/VWX VWP DATA SAMPLED
ONLY AROUND 20-25 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR...BUT THIS MAY SUPPORT A FEW
LOOSELY-ORGANIZED CLUSTERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS CAPABLE OF
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

..GRAMS/HART.. 07/02/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   37848834 37948767 37818586 37628550 37178527 36398539
            36148622 35858780 35488922 35608998 36089040 36969002
            37468931 37848834
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