[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 011630
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011629
TNZ000-NCZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-011730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1264
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...TN...NRN AL...NW GA...SCNTRL KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 011629Z - 011730Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND SHOULD AFFECT THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AS WELL. THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE MAY INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS
THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE ARKLATEX NEWD INTO WRN TN AND SRN KY
WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F. AS SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED
IN TO THE 80S ALONG MUCH OF THE CORRIDOR...MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS
DEVELOPED WITH MLCAPE VALUES ESTIMATED FROM NEAR 2500 J/KG NEAR THE
TN-MS STATELINE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG IN CNTRL KY AND ERN TN. A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING IN WRN TN JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY. THE NASHVILLE WSR-88D VWP SHOW A
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE WITH 30 KT OF WLY FLOW FROM 2 TO 5 KM
AGL. THIS IS CREATING 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 25 KT WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR CELL ORGANIZATIONS AS INSTABILITY INCREASES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR ISOLATED SEVERE
WIND GUSTS ALTHOUGH HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
UPDRAFTS. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD INCREASE ESPECIALLY IF THE
COLD POOL CAN INTENSIFY AS CELLS MOVE ACROSS CNTRL TN THIS
AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES/HART.. 07/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...
MEG...

LAT...LON   34288555 34358683 35218827 35598872 35988870 36378827
            36438764 36778669 37148626 37788559 37798483 37418439
            35928378 35018442 34598484 34288555
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