[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

Fri Feb 20 15:00:39 CST 2015

ACUS11 KWNS 202100
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202100
TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ILZ000-ARZ000-210200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0079
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/MIDDLE TN...NERN AR...SERN MO...SWRN KY...FAR
NRN MS AND AL

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 202100Z - 210200Z

SUMMARY...PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
MID-SOUTH. RATES OF 0.05-0.10 INCH PER THREE HRS ARE ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SEVERAL BANDS OF LIGHT TO
LOCALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING FROM SRN AR NEWD ACROSS
WRN/MIDDLE TN...AND ACROSS SERN MO AND SWRN KY. 20Z SFC ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE SFC FREEZING LINE POSITIONED FROM CNTRL AR EWD ACROSS
N-CNTRL MS...AND SLOWLY ADVANCING NWD IN RESPONSE TO SFC
MOIST/WARM-AIR ADVECTION AND TEMPERED EFFECTS FROM DIURNAL HEATING.
REPORTS OF INTERMITTENT FREEZING RAIN HAVE BEEN RECEIVED WITHIN THE
PAST 1-3 HRS ACROSS THE REGION...INCLUDING THE MEMPHIS AREA.

STRENGTHENING OF THE LLJ /ALREADY OCCURRING OVER THE ARKLATEX PER
SHV VWP DATA/ WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...RESULTING IN
A WARM NOSE AT 1.5-2 KM AGL BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED WITH TIME.
FREEZING RAIN SHOULD REMAIN OR TRANSITION TO THE DOMINANT P-TYPE
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WHERE SUB-FREEZING SFC TEMPERATURES PERSIST.
RATES ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT /0.05-0.10 INCH PER
THREE HRS/...BEFORE INCREASING LATER TONIGHT /AFTER 00Z/ AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EMANATING OUT OF THE CNTRL PLAINS...WHERE THE
FOCUS FOR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO NRN/WRN PORTIONS OF
THE MCD AREA. CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT TO PRECIPITATION RATES MAY ALSO
OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

..ROGERS.. 02/20/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   36518609 36138561 35398552 35008592 34588719 34518883
            34959024 35069212 35419259 36759194 37039062 36888745
            36518609

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