[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 161543
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161543
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-162045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0070
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0943 AM CST MON FEB 16 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 161543Z - 162045Z

SUMMARY...AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN WITH RATES OF 0.04-0.07 INCH PER
HOUR ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON FROM SERN AR INTO NRN MS AND
NWRN AL.

DISCUSSION...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOPS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING
EWD/ENEWD ACROSS THE REGION...IN ASSOCIATION WITH SLOPED ASCENT ATOP
A BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED WSW/ENE FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE
TN VALLEY. 1009-MB LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE RELATED SFC FRONT IS
ANALYZED S OF MONROE LA...AND WILL CONTINUE TRACKING IN THE GENERAL
DIRECTION OF ONGOING 1.5-2-MB-PER-2-HOUR PRESSURE FALLS DRIVEN BY
LLJ-ENHANCED WAA TO THE ENE. A MORE SOLID SHIELD OF RELATIVELY
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS APPROACHING/CROSSING THE MS RIVER AT
PRESENT...AND WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD/ENEWD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SFC FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO FOSTER THIS EWD/ENEWD SPREAD OF PRECIPITATION...AND AN
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ENHANCING PRECIP
RATES. GIVEN THE SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING SFC LAYER UNDERCUTTING
WELL-ABOVE-0C TEMPERATURES ALOFT...FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LIKELY WITH
RATES OF 0.05-0.10 INCH PER HOUR.

SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW A NOTABLE COLD WEDGE EXTENDING SWD ACROSS
PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY/NW PARTS OF THE ARKLAMISS DELTA
REGION...WITH GLH SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATING FROZEN PRECIPITATION
ONGOING. RELATED COLD-AIR DAMMING AND SWD TRANSPORT OF LOW-THETA-E
AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER -- ENHANCED IN THE NW DELTA -- WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE ARCING NATURE OF THE FREEZING-RAIN POTENTIAL AREA
INTO THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TAPERING OFF FROM W TO
E DURING THE MID AFTERNOON.

..COHEN.. 02/16/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   33179216 34289109 34869003 35008760 34938677 34638697
            34448869 34009020 33209102 33029175 33179216



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