[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 240141
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240141
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-240345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2052
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL AND NWRN AL...CNTRL/NRN MS...A SMALL PART
OF WRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 240141Z - 240345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF
CNTRL/NRN MS AND AL. SUPERCELLS WITH AN ACCOMPANYING TORNADO RISK
REMAIN POSSIBLE...AND A LOCAL EXTENSION OF TORNADO WATCH 559 AND/OR
A NEW WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST CONVECTIVE TRENDS SHOW NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS
OCCURRING ALONG THE SRN FLANK OF AN EXTENSIVE LINE OVER NRN MS...AND
ADDITIONAL TSTMS FORMING ALONG A CONFLUENCE LINE INTO CNTRL MS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS AS THE
INSTABILITY/LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS FIXED ACROSS CNTRL MS.
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
WITH AN ACCOMPANYING TORNADO RISK POSSIBLE. VWP DERIVED HODOGRAPHS
CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT VERY STRONG 0-3 KM SRH ON THE ORDER OF 700
M2/S2. SOME WEAKENING IN LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH 06Z AS
THE LLJ BEGINS TO SHIFT N/E...BUT THE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST LONG
ENOUGH TO WARRANT CONSIDERATION OF A LOCAL EXTENSION OF TORNADO
WATCH 559 AND/OR A NEW TORNADO WATCH ACROSS CNTRL/NRN MS INTO
W-CNTRL AL...AND A SMALL PART OF WRN TN.

..ROGERS/THOMPSON.. 12/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   34358766 33938669 33408643 32618716 32418899 32949011
            33459035 34029027 34488984 34938927 35458850 35508810
            35488803 34998814 34388812 34358766
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
http://www.nashvilleweather.net

Follow us on Facebook at:
http://www.facebook.com/nashvilleweather