[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 232050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232049
TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-232215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2045
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...NRN MS...WEST TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 559...

VALID 232049Z - 232215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 559 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF STRONG TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVER EASTERN AR...ALONG A LINE FROM WEST OF PAH - BYH -
WEST OF MEM.  SEVERAL STORMS ALONG THE LINE HAVE DEVELOPED
PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL ROTATION AND HAVE PRODUCED LARGE HAIL /UP TO
BASEBALL SIZE/.  LOCAL RADARS INDICATE THAT STRONG LOW LEVEL
ROTATION HAS YET TO DEVELOP IN THESE STORMS...AND SO FAR THE TORNADO
RISK HAS BEEN LIMITED.  THE VAD PROFILE AT MEM SHOWS INTENSE LOW
LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IS PRESENT AHEAD OF THE STORMS...WITH 0-3KM SRH
VALUES NOW OVER 700 M2/S2.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE MID 60S
INTO WEST TN IS YIELDING SUFFICIENT MLCAPE VALUES TO MAINTAIN A RISK
OF STRONG TORNADOES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO FORMED OVER WEST TN AHEAD OF
THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE.  THIS TRENDS SUGGESTS THAT A NEW WW MAY BE
NEEDED TO THE EAST OF WW 559 WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...INCLUDING MORE OF MIDDLE TN AND NORTHWEST AL.

..HART/GRAMS.. 12/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   36418972 35289093 33029160 32909089 34978736 36658683
            36678844 36418972
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