[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 200122
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200121
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-200215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0388
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0821 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN MO...WRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 200121Z - 200215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE AS THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD ACROSS
SERN MO INTO WRN KY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

DISCUSSION...LARGE SCALE FORCING...ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL SPEED
MAX...IS SPREADING ACROSS AR TOWARD THE WRN TN/LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION.  CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS
FEATURE AND A WEAK MCV MAY BE EVOLVING ALONG NRN EDGE OF TSTM
COMPLEX APPROACHING THE BOOT HEEL OF MO.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS SOME HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY.  SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CONVECTION
SPREADING NORTH OF CURRENT WATCHES.

..DARROW/CORFIDI.. 04/20/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36749008 37408868 37548714 36678703 36288976 36749008


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