[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 191814
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191814
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-192015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0114 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NERN MS...CNTRL AND NRN AL...MIDDLE TN AND
ADJACENT S CNTRL KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 191814Z - 192015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY POSE SOME MARGINAL SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THE NEED FOR A WATCH
CURRENTLY APPEARS UNLIKELY...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...MID/UPPER FORCING...ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE
PIVOTING AROUND THE REMNANT CENTRAL PLAINS MID-LEVEL LOW...APPEARS
LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE 19-22Z TIME.  THE
AXIS OF STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION...WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE NOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...IS
SETTING UP ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THROUGH WESTERN/CENTRAL
ALABAMA.  THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST
SURFACE HEATING...ROUGHLY COINCIDENT WITH A ZONE OF STRONG MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE...WHICH SEEMS LIKELY TO PRECLUDE STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHWESTERN/WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA.
 IN THE WAKE OF THE SIGNIFICANT CLUSTER OF STORMS NOW SPREADING
TOWARD THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST...850 MB FLOW
IS WEAKER AND VEERED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST.  BUT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR COULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST MODEST UPDRAFT
ROTATION...CONTRIBUTING TO A RISK FOR AT LEAST OCCASIONAL MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL IN STRONGEST CELLS...PERHAPS SOME LOCALLY STRONG SURFACE
GUSTS.

..KERR/HART.. 04/19/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...PAH...
MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   32188824 33298832 33968869 36248783 36768688 36528550
            34118448 32868535 32408640 32058786 32188824



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