[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

Fri Apr 10 00:54:36 CDT 2015

ACUS11 KWNS 100553
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100553
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-100800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0271
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS / NWRN AL / SRN MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 100553Z - 100800Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLD WIND DAMAGE THREAT IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
NRN MS AND EVENTUALLY AREAS DOWNSTREAM INTO PARTS OF NWRN AL AND SRN
MIDDLE TN.  IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO FURTHER ORGANIZE...A TORNADO IS
ALSO POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS INTENSIFYING STORMS ACROSS NRN MS ON
THE SRN END OF A CONVECTIVE RAIN SHIELD EXTENDING FROM NRN MS INTO
WRN TN.  STORMS ALSO APPEAR TO BE INTENSIFYING NEAR THE MS RIVER 40
MI S MEM.  KGWX SHOWS A VEERING AND STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILE WITH
HEIGHT SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS.  THE INFLOW AIRMASS TO THE S OF THE STORM CLUSTER IN NRN
MS IS CHARACTERIZED WITH LOWER 70S TEMPS AND MID 60S DEWPOINTS.
THESE SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG SBCAPE
PER THE MODIFIED 00Z JAN RAOB.

MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A BELT OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL SWLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  GIVEN THE STRONG WIND
PROFILE AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR
EXISTING STORMS TO EVOLVE INTO A FEW SUPERCELLS AND/OR LINE SEGMENTS
POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE NEED FOR A TORNADO
WATCH.

..SMITH/MEAD.. 04/10/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   34439065 35268845 35598729 35228679 34448699 33818839
            33979030 34439065

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