[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 141123
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141123
TNZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-141330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1890
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0623 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AL THROUGH MIDDLE TN AND SCNTRL KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 141123Z - 141330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LOW-TOPPED LINE OF STORMS FROM NRN AL THROUGH MIDDLE TN
AND SCNTRL KY MIGHT BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SPORADIC STRONG WIND
GUSTS. HOWEVER...THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO MARGINAL FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...A NARROW BAND OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
FROM NCNTRL AL INTO MIDDLE TN AND SCNTRL KY IMMEDIATELY ON THE HEELS
OF A LARGE STRATIFORM RAIN AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A DOWNSTREAM MCS.
THIS BAND OF CONVECTION APPEARS TO HAVE INITIATED IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING DEEP-LAYER CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTING NEWD THROUGH WRN PORTION OF THE TN VALLEY. DESPITE STRONG
FORCING AND PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER WINDS...OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED BY THE VERY MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. POINT FORECAST SOUNDING DATA SHOW
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ONLY AROUND 25000 FT WITH 200-300 J/KG MUCAPE AND
A THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES. DUE TO STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE DOWNSTREAM MCS
AND TIME OF DAY...THE ACTIVITY WILL NOT LIKELY UNDERGO MUCH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. NEVERTHELESS...SPORADIC STRONG WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 10/14/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...

LAT...LON   34828613 36068601 37208601 37468544 36798472 35408509
            34588565 34828613



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