[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 121931
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121930
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-122200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1852
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF LA...MS...NRN AL...NWRN GA...ERN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 121930Z - 122200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A BROAD AREA FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO ERN TN WILL
EXPERIENCE THE RISK FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE
ISSUANCE OF A WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A NWD-RETREATING
BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT ARCING NEWD FROM CNTRL LA TO NERN MS...WITH THE
BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD INTO NORTH GA AS A STATIONARY FRONT. DIURNAL
HEATING HAS YIELDED MLCAPE AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG S OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...WHERE UPPER-60S SFC DEWPOINTS EXIST AND
VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS DEEPENING PBL-CONVERGENCE-
MANIFESTED CLOUD BANDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM/INTENSIFY FROM THIS ACTIVITY WITH
ADDITIONAL DIURNAL HEATING. MEANWHILE...A LOOSELY ORGANIZED
MULTICELL CLUSTER OVER NRN AL WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD...PERHAPS
DEVELOPING FARTHER N INTO ERN TN TO THE N OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
IN A LESS-BUOYANT ENVIRONMENT. ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...VWPS
INDICATE 30-35 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL OFFER SUFFICIENT
DEEP SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED MULTICELL STORMS WITH STRONG TO PERHAPS
VERY LOCALLY/SPORADIC DMGG WIND GUSTS. MARGINALLY SVR HAIL COULD
OCCUR WITH THE MOST INTENSE...INCIPIENT CORES. ALSO...A WEAK/BRIEF
TORNADO CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT IN PROXIMITY TO THE WARM
FRONT...WHERE RELATIVELY BACKED SFC WINDS ARE ENHANCING 0-1-KM SRH.
HOWEVER...POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WEAK DEEP ASCENT...AND WEAK
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALL GREATLY MITIGATE ANY MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL.

..COHEN/CARBIN.. 10/12/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LIX...
LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   34208671 34728596 36268583 36568512 36088463 34388454
            33358570 32908779 31988949 30859262 30849334 31649343
            32289319 33059128 33449048 34158911 34258821 34208671



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