[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 022225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022225
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-030000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1801
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0525 PM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LA/AR/CENTRAL AND NRN MS/WRN TN/WRN KY/SERN
MO/SRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 022225Z - 030000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST AS A DEVELOPING QLCS ADVANCES EWD INTO THE EVENING ACROSS
AR/NRN LA AND SRN PARTS OF MO INTO THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS REGION.
A NEW WW WILL BE COORDINATED WITH THE AFFECTED WFOS FROM NRN LA/AR
TO SERN MO/WRN KY.  MEANWHILE...ONGOING STORMS FROM MS TO FAR NERN
AR/ADJACENT WRN TN WILL CONTINUE TO POSE AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT THROUGH 00Z.  THEREAFTER...CONCERN EXISTS FOR AN INCREASED
TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE MID-EVENING.

DISCUSSION...MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY SUGGESTED A CORRIDOR OF DEEP
LAYER ASCENT HAD BEGUN TO OVERTAKE THE EASTWARD-MOVING LINE OF
TSTMS...WHICH EXTEND FROM NORTH-CENTRAL TX THROUGH ERN OK TO
SWRN-CENTRAL MO.  TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED COLD-POOL
MERGERS WITH THE BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WERE COALESCING AS LINEAR
FORCING BECOMES THE PREDOMINANT FACTOR FOR STORMS INTO THE
EVENING...WITH THE ENEWD TRACK OF THE SRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
MEANWHILE...A W/NWWD MOVING COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...FROM
ONGOING AND EARLIER SPLITTING STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...EXTENDED FROM NWRN LA /EAST OF SHV/ NWD INTO SWRN AR AND
THEN NEWD THROUGH CENTRAL AR NEAR LIT TO NERN AR/WRN TN INVOF THE
ONGOING STORMS.  ALTHOUGH VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATED CLEAR SKIES IN
THE WAKE OF THAT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...RECENT TRENDS IN SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED RISING TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS LIKELY IN
RESPONSE TO MASS FIELDS/ATMOSPHERIC ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

A FURTHER INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THE EVENING...WITHIN A RATHER
MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  WHILE DAMAGING WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT WITH ANY STORMS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
EWD MOVING QLCS...A STRENGTHENING SSWLY LLJ FROM THE ARKLATEX TO
LOWER TN VALLEY WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING TORNADO THREAT THROUGH
THE EVENING.

..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 10/02/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...SHV...

LAT...LON   32439450 34179408 35779290 36869069 37598865 37698776
            35198825 33998942 32569047 32249162 32439450


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