[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

Wed Nov 12 05:29:31 CST 2014

ACUS11 KWNS 241901
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241901
KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-242030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0201 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...LWR OH/TN VLYS...MID-SOUTH

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 94...96...

VALID 241901Z - 242030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 94...96...CONTINUES.

HIGHEST RISK FOR STRONG TORNADOES WILL EXIST FROM NRN MS/AL NWD
THROUGH WRN/MIDDLE TN...WRN/CNTRL KY AND EXTREME SRN IL/IND THROUGH
LATE AFTN.  HERE...STRONGEST JUXTAPOSITION OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS OVER WRN KY AT
18Z AND ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE IS RESULTING IN 0-1KM SRH IN EXCESS OF
500 M2/S2 FROM THE LWR OH VLY SWD INTO TN VLY.  SFC DEW POINTS HAVE
RISEN WELL INTO THE 60S AS FAR N AS SRN IL AND SWRN IND AND THE 70S
TO ALONG THE TN/MS BORDER...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT CAPE TO SUPPORT
STORMS.  18Z JACKSON SOUNDING SUGGESTED INCREASED CAPPING INVERSION
AROUND H7 MAY BE INHIBITING SUSTAINED DEEP MOIST CONVECTION SOUTH OF
THE LATITUDE OF JACKSON MS ACROSS LA/SRN MS.

MEANWHILE...FARTHER TO THE S AND E ACROSS CNTRL/SRN AL...CONVECTION
HAS BEEN BACKBUILDING ALONG SW EDGE OF MORNING STORMS.  LOW-LEVEL
THETA-E AXIS HAS BEEN TRYING TO BUILD NEWD EARLY THIS AFTN AND MAY
EVENTUALLY WORK TOWARD THE GA/AL BORDER AREA BY 22Z OR SO.
INCREASING WAA AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN SVR STORMS THROUGH THE AFTN.  FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES
AND IMPROVING THERMODYNAMICS WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
TORNADO RISKS...PARTICULARLY IN THE ZONE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF
TORNADO WATCH 96.

..RACY.. 04/24/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...PAH...MEG...
JAN...

LAT...LON   31679091 33319014 35779075 36799054 38278658 37618541
            35498569 33318595 32458672 32048925 31679091

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
http://www.nashvilleweather.net

Follow us on Facebook at:
http://www.facebook.com/nashvilleweather