[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 092154
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092154
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-092330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0927
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0454 PM CDT MON JUN 09 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL MS...WRN/NRN AL...MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 267...

VALID 092154Z - 092330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 267
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...RISKS FOR DAMAGING WIND WITH STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE
GUSTS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE HAIL AND A TORNADO SHOULD PERSIST
WITHIN/DEVELOP E/NE OF WW/S 267/268. PROBABILITY OF DOWNSTREAM WW
ISSUANCE IS 80 PERCENT.

DISCUSSION...QLCS HAS LARGELY CROSSED THE MS RIVER IN TN/MS...WITH
THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THE LINE ACROSS MS. S OF A RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LYING FROM AROUND 40 N JAN TO AUO...AIR MASS IS
STRONGLY UNSTABLE PER MODIFIED 12Z JAN RAOB. N OF THIS WEAK
BOUNDARY...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S WITHIN THE
PREVIOUSLY CONVECTIVELY-MODIFIED AIR MASS...YIELDING MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION. 40 KT SWLYS AT 4 KM AGL IN JAN VWP DATA WILL
MAINTAIN A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE N/S-ORIENTATION OF THE
LINE AS IT PROGRESSES E/NEWD THIS EVENING. STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SWLYS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO LARGELY LAG THE LINE PER AREA VWP AND MODEL
FORECASTS. STILL...BACKED SURFACE WINDS ACROSS TN INTO PERHAPS NRN
AL SUPPORT A NON-ZERO TORNADO RISK.

..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 06/09/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   32549070 34099011 34778974 35568905 36008827 36108775
            36008708 35578667 34928640 34528645 33218733 32308837
            31828906 31818986 31919034 32549070



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