[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 061623
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061622
GAZ000-ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-061745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0853
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CDT FRI JUN 06 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN MS...NRN AL...NRN GA...SRN TN...ERN
AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 061622Z - 061745Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED.

DISCUSSION...RICH DEEP MOISTURE SAMPLED BY THE 12Z JAN...BMX...AND
FFC RAOBS EXISTS S OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ANALYZED WNW/ESE THROUGH
THE MID-SOUTH REGION -- DRAWN N OF MEMPHIS METRO. SFC OBS REFLECT A
MODEST INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE
REGION...PROBABLY A REFLECTION OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED VERTICAL MIXING
INTO HIGH TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE -- E.G. PW VALUES AROUND 1.5-1.7
INCHES PER GPS DATA -- AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION. THIS IS FOSTERING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STRONG BUOYANCY...WITH MODIFICATIONS TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED RAOBS SUGGESTING MLCAPE ALREADY AROUND 2000-3500 J/KG
ACROSS THE REGION WITH LITTLE REMAINING INHIBITION.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY INDICATES BOUNDARY-LAYER CUMULUS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY AGITATED AS PBL CIRCULATIONS DIURNALLY
GROW...AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BLOSSOM FROM THE ASCENDING
BRANCHES OF THESE CIRCULATIONS AND INVOF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STORMS ENTERING NRN AL MAY ALSO INTENSIFY
AS THEY TRACK SEWD TOWARD NWRN GA. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...LIFT
ACCOMPANYING RESIDUAL CIRCULATIONS RELATED TO AN UPSTREAM MCS
CURRENTLY ENTERING WRN AR MAY ALSO BREED SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
NUMEROUS STORMS. GIVEN THE HIGH BUOYANCY IN PLACE...AND PRESENCE OF
ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTING 25-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR...SUSTAINED INTENSE MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

..COHEN/DARROW/WEISS.. 06/06/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   33018913 33619087 34809109 35409068 35468918 35078600
            34448437 33158461 32938699 33018913


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