[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 051428
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051427
TNZ000-MSZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-051530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0834
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0927 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO...NRN/NERN AR...WRN TN...NRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 051427Z - 051530Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH SEWD-MOVING
MCS AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE MO/AR BORDER INTO WRN TN/NRN MS.  SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS.

DISCUSSION...LONG-LIVED...FAST-MOVING MCS IS PROGRESSING INTO SWRN
MO WITH A NEW MCV FORMING JUST NORTH OF JLN. LEADING EDGE OF SQUALL
LINE IS PROPAGATING SEWD IN EXCESS OF 60KT AND WILL APPROACH ERN
EDGE OF WW 228 BY 1530Z.  DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUE WITH THIS MCS WITH
NUMEROUS MEASURED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50KT.  AT 1353Z WINDS
GUSTED TO 56KT AT JLN.

VERY WARM 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE NOTED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO
CNTRL AR WITH VALUES BETWEEN 14-18C.  THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE SWRN
FLANK OF MCS.  HOWEVER...STRONG ORGANIZED MCV OVER SWRN MO SHOULD
INDUCE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT TURNS SEWD ALONG SYNOPTIC
FRONT...REINFORCED BY EARLY-MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS WRN TN.  THIS
CORRIDOR APPEARS TO HAVE THE GREATEST RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  DIURNAL HEATING MAY ALLOW MCS TO TURN SWD
ACROSS WRN TN INTO NRN MS ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF STRONG CAP.

..DARROW.. 06/05/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   37399261 36758920 35688764 34128897 35819310 37399261



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