[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 272329
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272328
VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-280100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1491
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0628 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN KY INTO SWRN VA...NERN TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 445...

VALID 272328Z - 280100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 445 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS...APPEARS LIKELY TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF WATCH 445 FOR
AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HOURS BEYOND 00Z.  A NEW WW APPEARS TO BE
NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS...PERSISTS WHILE GRADUALLY DEVELOPING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
ALONG A CONVECTIVELY GENERATED OR ENHANCED SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE
EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN TENNESSEE INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.  AT THE SAME TIME...NEW DISCRETE STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF AN AXIS OF STRONGER
SURFACE HEATING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
ADDITIONAL...SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SOUTH
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER...MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW BEGINNING TO TURN
SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.

DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONGER/MORE FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...
FURTHER UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE KENTUCKY PORTION
OF WW 445 APPEARS UNLIKELY.  BUT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
RELATIVELY STEEP...AND SEASONABLY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MODERATELY LARGE CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF
VERTICAL SHEAR MORE THAN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR
LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.  THIS SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE FOR AT LEAST
A FEW MORE HOURS BEYOND 00Z.

..KERR/EDWARDS.. 07/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   38248515 38508409 37908283 36628171 35788329 35988496
            36528631 36958684 38248515



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