[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 142058
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142057
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-142230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1377
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AR...TN...NRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 419...

VALID 142057Z - 142230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 419
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS WW 419 THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD
ACROSS SRN IL...SE MO AND NW AR. A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
EXISTS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S F. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO POCKET OF STRONG
INSTABILITY IN NERN AR WHERE THE RAP IS ESTIMATING MLCAPE IN THE
3000 TO 4000 J/KG RANGE. THIS SHOULD FUEL A BOWING LINE SEGMENT
CURRENTLY MOVING EWD THROUGH NERN AR. DUE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES EVIDENT ON THE MEMPHIS WSR-88D
VWP...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE. HAIL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS ELEMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE
LINE. THIS THREAT SHOULD EVENTUALLY AFFECT WRN TN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE EAST...ANOTHER LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
ONGOING ALONG A GRADIENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY TO THE WEST OF
NASHVILLE. AS THIS LINE MOVES INTO THE ERN PART OF THE WATCH...THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT.

..BROYLES/HART.. 07/14/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   34938605 34908818 34709025 34739225 35449290 36239228
            36468590 35548519 34938605


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
http://www.nashvilleweather.net

Follow us on Facebook at:
http://www.facebook.com/nashvilleweather