[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 082002
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082002
VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-NCZ000-082130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1317
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CDT TUE JUL 08 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN KY...FAR SWRN VA AND ERN AND PART OF
MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 082002Z - 082130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS
ERN KY...FAR SWRN VA AND THE ERN HALF OF TN.  OVERALL COVERAGE OF
THE SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN...RESULTING IN THE
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE BEING 40 PERCENT.

DISCUSSION...EARLY-MID AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM NWRN OH THROUGH SRN IND/IL TO SRN MO...WHILE A
PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT WAS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT
FROM WRN PA TO ERN TN...AND THIS BOUNDARY THEN TRAILED WSWWD TO NEAR
THE MIDDLE TN/NRN AL BORDER TO FAR NRN MS.  THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA AND INTO NRN AL HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE
SUPPORTING TSTM DEVELOPMENT.  THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION
AND THE GREATEST SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO ERN
KY...ERN TN INTO FAR SWRN VA WHERE KINEMATICS ARE STRONGER /35-40 KT
WLY MEAN FLOW/ PER STRENGTHENING TROPOSPHERIC WINDS ALONG THE SRN
PERIPHERY OF THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  STRONGEST EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KT SHOULD BE CONFINED FROM ERN KY INTO SWRN VA.

GIVEN THESE FACTORS...ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO
THE MODERATE INSTABILITY.  THE LACK OF STRONGER FORCING ALOFT
SUGGESTS THE AREAL DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS MAY NOT BECOME GREAT ENOUGH
TO WARRANT WATCH ISSUANCE...AND THIS TREND IS SUGGESTED BY THE 12Z 4
KM NAM.  HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR AN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE/STRENGTH OF UPDRAFTS.  WEAKER INSTABILITY IN
PLACE ACROSS WRN NC SUGGESTS STORMS MAY HAVE DIFFICULTY MAINTAINING
SUSTENANCE TOO FAR EAST OF THE TN/NC BORDER.

..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 07/08/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...OHX...HUN...

LAT...LON   37668245 37228188 36568176 35878286 35188466 35118645
            35518654 36488519 37458328 37668245



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