[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 210330
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210329
KYZ000-TNZ000-NCZ000-VAZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-210430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0132
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0929 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY...ERN TN...PARTS OF NRN GA...FAR SWRN VA/NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 210329Z - 210430Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A NEW WW WILL BE COORDINATED WITH AFFECTED WFO/S FROM ERN
KY...ERN TN INTO PARTS OF NRN GA...AND FAR SWRN VA/NC.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY THROUGH 0315Z SHOWED A
WELL-DEFINED FAST MOVING /ENE AT 50 KT/ QLCS EXTENDING FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL KY THROUGH MIDDLE TN /E OF BNA/ TO NWRN AL AND INTO ERN MS.
DESPITE A MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ERN EXTENT...THE
STRENGTH OF THE PARENT MS VALLEY MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEING
FURTHER INTENSIFIED AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE BASE OF
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A CONTINUED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
INTO ERN KY...ERN TN...NRN GA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NC/VA.  THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM IS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE STRONG SURFACE
PRESSURE RISES EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO E
TX...ENHANCING THE EWD MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT TOWARD THE QLCS.
IN ADDITION TO A CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LOW LEVEL AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL FURTHER SUPPORT EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES IN THE
QLCS FOR A TORNADO THREAT TO PERSIST.  AREA VADS SHOW LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AND SFC-1 KM SHEAR OF 35+ KT SUPPORTIVE OF THE
TORNADO THREAT.

..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 02/21/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   37518440 37808378 37578290 36998297 35678322 34538395
            34098483 34108553 35138580 36818469 37518440


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