[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 202356
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202355
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-210030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0127
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0555 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SRN MS/PARTS OF ERN AND SERN
LA/WRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 202355Z - 210030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A NEW TORNADO WATCH IS BEING COORDINATED FOR THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND PART OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES FROM PARTS OF
ERN/SERN LA INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SRN MS TO WRN AL.  IN ADDITION
TO A TORNADO THREAT...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY THROUGH 2345Z SHOWED
CLUSTERS OF TSTMS...SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE...DEVELOPING
OVER SERN MS WSWWD TO EITHER SIDE OF THE SRN MS/SERN LA
BORDER...WHILE A PRE-COLD FRONT BROKEN BAND OF STORMS CONTINUED FROM
NWRN MS THROUGH NERN LA TO FAR SERN TX.  THE AFOREMENTIONED CLUSTERS
OF STORMS ARE BEING AIDED BY PREDOMINATELY BY LOW LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AND CURRENTLY BEING GLANCED BY FORCING ALOFT AS THE
MS VALLEY UPPER TROUGH ADVANCE.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ESEWD
INTO THE BASE OF THE MS VALLEY TROUGH FROM THE SRN PLAINS THIS
EVENING WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER ASCENT INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL
TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALREADY SUPPORTIVE AND IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SO THROUGH THE EVENING AS DEEP LAYER WINDS STRENGTHEN...
ESPECIALLY INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  00Z SOUNDING AT JAN SHOWED AN
EARLIER CAP NO LONGER EXISTED...AND IS SUPPORTIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
TSTM DEVELOPMENT.  LOW LEVEL SHEAR PER 00Z JAN SOUNDING WAS ALREADY
SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...WITH SUPERCELLS AND AN ATTENDANT
TORNADO POTENTIAL.

..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 02/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...
SHV...

LAT...LON   30349377 31769254 33329070 34988906 35008718 34978669
            34088675 32798732 31428812 30538924 30319048 30049121
            29879196 30349377



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