[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 312057
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312057
VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-312300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1648
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN AL...NRN GA...WRN NC...ERN
TN...ERN KY...CNTRL/SRN WV...WRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 312057Z - 312300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR AN ISOLATED SVR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WITHIN A BROAD
CORRIDOR OF NEWD MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS OCCASIONALLY SHOWN SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE. A MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURE HAS EVEN
BEEN INDICATED OVER ERN KY. THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR SIMILAR ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS
TRANSLUCENT MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE HAS PERMITTED MODEST
INSOLATION AMIDST A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FEATURING DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S. WITH AREA VWPS INDICATING 20-30-KT WSWLYS IN THE
1-3-KM LAYER...AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. AND...WITH LOW LCLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER...THE RISK FOR A WEAK TORNADO MAY EXIST. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF
STEEPER LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE PRESENCE OF ONLY MODEST
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM RISK
FROM OCCURRING.

..COHEN/HART.. 08/31/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...OHX...
HUN...

LAT...LON   34768675 37038436 38508216 38948002 37867930 36698026
            35368236 34478504 34768675



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