[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 292356
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292355
ALZ000-TNZ000-300130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0484
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN AL AND A SMALL PART OF SRN MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 118...

VALID 292355Z - 300130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 118 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...WHILE THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND SOME HAIL MAY
PERSIST ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS OR SO ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN AL...THE
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING AN EXTENSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
STRETCHES FROM THE NRN GULF NWD THROUGH ERN MS THEN NEWD INTO MIDDLE
TN. STORMS THAT INITIATED FARTHER WEST OVER NRN MS ALONG PACIFIC
FRONT WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AS THEY CROSSED INTO THE LESS UNSTABLE
REGIME OVER NRN AL EAST OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS
ARE ONLY IN THE LOW 60S. MOREOVER...CONSIDERABLE ANVIL DEBRIS HAS
RESULTED IN VERY LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING. ONSET OF NOCTURNAL
COOLING WILL FURTHER LIMIT ANY FUTURE DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL. NEW
STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER NWRN AL...AND VWPS FROM BIRMINGHAM AND
HUNTSVILLE INDICATE 50+ KT 0-6 KM SHEAR...SUGGESTING SOME STORMS
COULD STILL TAKE ON SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. MOREOVER...AN INCREASE IN
THE LLJ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE FAVORABLE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS FOR
LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES THIS EVENING. DESPITE THE FAVORABLE
KINEMATICS FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT WILL PROBABLY REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST
SEVERE THREAT.

..DIAL.. 04/29/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   34238803 35328638 34828569 33468577 32968688 32518811
            34238803


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