[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 282311
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282310
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-290045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0463
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0610 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IL INTO WRN KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 109...

VALID 282310Z - 290045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 109 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN IL THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. A LOCAL WATCH EXTENSION MAY BE
NEEDED AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF WW 109 ARE BEING MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...ONGOING LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN IL MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS LINE FROM
CHRISTIAN TO ST. CLAIR COUNTIES. A LOCAL AERIAL AND TEMPORAL
EXTENSION OF WW 109 MAY BE NEEDED AS THE THREAT COULD EXTEND BEYOND
00Z.

HERE...AND POINTS SOUTH INTO WRN KY...HAVE DESTABILIZED AHEAD OF THE
MAIN SFC COLD FRONT. THIS NARROW CORRIDOR WHERE RECOVERY FROM
EARLIER CONVECTION IS OCCURRING...MAY SUPPORT CONTINUED SOUTHWARD
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE EWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA HAS SHOWN SOME SPORADIC CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS SRN IL AND MESOANALYSIS INDICATED SBCAPE APPROACHING 2000
J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS AREA AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED IN THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS. TO THE EAST OF THIS CORRIDOR TOWARD SRN IND AND
CENTRAL KY...INSTABILITY QUICKLY DIMINISHES AS ONGOING CONVECTION
HAS LEAD TO A COOL AND MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.

..LEITMAN/HART.. 04/28/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON   39958814 39128778 38238736 37548722 36938739 36628797
            36648864 36938905 37568965 38318998 38779010 38969003
            39758999 40419006 41059039 41549051 41769006 41608934
            41008871 40278829 39958814



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