[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 282013
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282013
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-282215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0457
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0313 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN MO...SRN IL...SRN
INDIANA...WRN/CNTRL KY....NWRN AND NRN MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 282013Z - 282215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX WITH
ACCOMPANYING ASCENT SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION AROUND
THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVERS. THIS IS WHERE
PRE-FRONTAL INSOLATION HAS LOCALLY BOOSTED BUOYANCY...AND THIS
ACTIVITY MAY INTENSIFY AS A LOW-LEVEL JET SUPPORTS AN INFLUX OF
WARMER/MOISTER CONDITIONS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP TO THE E OF THIS ACTIVITY...WHERE RESIDUAL STATIC STABILITY
OWING TO EARLIER CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY STUNT THE OVERALL SVR
RISK. HOWEVER...HIGHER THETA-E AIR FROM THE S WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD
NWD AND SUPPORT MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION. THE PRESENCE OF 55-80 KT
OF 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR PER REGIONAL VWP WILL SUPPORT
SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH SVR HAIL/WIND POSSIBLE...AND
LARGE/LOOPING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT SOME RISK FOR
TORNADOES. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF BOUNDARY-LAYER
DESTABILIZATION PRECLUDES GREATER CONFIDENCE IN WW ISSUANCE AT THIS
TIME.

..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 04/28/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...

LAT...LON   35758713 35858804 36058969 37249026 38128964 38308709
            38018545 37178472 36148503 35718609 35758713


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